Application of the BAR score as a predictor of short- and long-term survival in liver transplantation patients.

BACKGROUND: The balance of risk (BAR) is a prediction system after liver transplantation. METHODS: To assess the BAR system, a retrospective observational study was performed in 402 patients who had transplant surgery between 1997 and 2012. The BAR score was computed for each patient. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, and model calibration. The cutoff value with the best Youden index was selected. Statistical analysis employed the Kaplan-Meier method (log-rank test) for survival, the Mann-Whitney test for group comparison, and multiple logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: 3-month survival was 46% for BAR ≥ 11 and 77% for BAR <11 (p = 0.001); 12-month survival was 44% for BAR ≥ 11 and 69% for BAR <11 (p = 0.001). Factors of survival <3 months were BAR ≥ 11 [odds ratio (OR) 3.08; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75-5.42; p = 0.001] and intrasurgical use of packed red blood cells (RBC) above 6 units (OR 4.49; 95% CI 2.73-7.39; p = 0.001). For survival <12 months, factors were BAR ≥ 11 (OR 2.94; 95% CI 1.67-5.16; p = 0.001) and RBC >6 units (OR 2.99; 95% CI 1.92-4.64; p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our study contributes to the incorporation of the BAR system into Brazilian transplantation centers.

Aplicação do escore MELD em pacientes submetidos a transplante de fígado: análise retrospectiva da sobrevida e dos fatores preditivos a curto e longo prazo / The application of MELD score in patients submitted to liver transplantation: a retrospective analysis of survival and the predictive factors in the short and long term

RACIONAL: Utiliza-se o escore MELD (Model End-Stage Liver Disease) para o prognóstico da mortalidade em lista de espera para transplante de fígado e, em alguns estudos, para predição da sobrevida pós-operatória a longo prazo. OBJETIVO: Verificar a aplicação do escore MELD como predição da sobrevida após o transplante. MÉTODOS: Por intermédio de dados coletados prospectivamente efetuou-se um estudo de coorte longitudinal retrospectivo em 232 pacientes. Excluíram-se os retransplantes, insuficiência hepática aguda, crianças e enxertos duplos ou reduzidos. Avaliaram-se os dados dos doadores: idade, sexo, peso, creatinina, bilirrubina, sódio, aspartato aminotransferase, antecedentes pessoais, causa da morte, presença de esteatose, número de critérios expandidos do doador e índice de risco do doador. Em relação aos receptores, analisaram-se as variáveis: sexo, idade, peso, doença hepática, pontos de Child-Turcotte-Pugh, escore MELD, depuração de creatinina, sódio, tempos de isquemia e de hospitalização, quantidade de hemoderivados transfundidos, presença e grau de disfunção do enxerto. A análise estatística foi efetuada usando-se a análise de regressão univariada e/ou múltipla, estatística 'c', teste exato de Fisher, método de Kaplan-Meier (teste log-rank) para sobrevida, e análise de regressão de Cox para risco de óbito ajustado para as condições clínicas. RESULTADOS: O ponto de corte MELD para sobrevida foi 20 e de Child-Turcotte-Pugh foi 11,5. Para escore MELD maior ou igual a 20, os fatores preditivos de sobrevida foram: volume de sangue transfundido, disfunção do enxerto e o sódio do doador. Para os hiponatrêmicos os fatores preditivos de sobrevida foram: volume de sangue transfundido, disfunção do enxerto e sódio do doador. A sobrevida estimada para pacientes com escore MELD >25 foi menor ao final de 12 meses (68,86 por cento vs 39,13 por cento). A sobrevida estimada para os pacientes sem hiponatremia foi maior (65,16 por cento vs 44,44...

BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival. AIM: To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival. METHODS: The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh. RESULTS: A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > 20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk...

[The application of MELD score in patients submitted to liver transplantation: a retrospective analysis of survival and the predictive factors in the short and long term]. / Aplicação do escore MELD em pacientes submetidos a transplante de fígado: análise retrospectiva da sobrevida e dos fatores preditivos a curto e longo prazo.

BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival. AIM: To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival. METHODS: The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh. RESULTS: A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > or =20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk factors for death: score MELD > or = 25, blood requirements, recipient creatinine clearance pretransplant and age donor > or =50. After stepwise analyses, only red cell requirement was predictive. Patients with MELD score < 25 had a 68.86%, 50,44% and 41,50% chance for 1, 5 and 10-year survival and > or =25 were 39.13%, 29.81% and 22.36% respectively. Patients without hyponatremia were 65.16%, 50.28% and 41,98% and with hyponatremia 44.44%, 34.28% and 28.57% respectively. Patients with IDR > or =1.7 showed 53.7%, 27.71% and 13.85% and index donor risk <1.7 was 63.62%, 51.4% and 44.08%, respectively. Age donor > 50 years showed 38.4%, 26.21% and 13.1% and age donor < or =50 years showed 65.58%, 26.21% and 13.1%. Association with delta-MELD score did not show any significant difference. Expanded criteria donors were associated with primary non-function and severe liver dysfunction. Predictive factors for death were blood requirements, hyponatremia, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. CONCLUSION: In conclusion MELD over 25, recipient's hyponatremia, blood requirements, donor's sodium were associated with poor survival.